Managing a policy paradox? Responses to textual warning labels on E-cigarette advertisements among U.S. national samples of youth overall and adults who smoke or vape.

CONTEXT: Current use and potential future uptake of e-cigarettes among youth remain public health concerns in the U.S., even as people who smoke combustible cigarettes could benefit from switching completely to e-cigarettes. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is considering alternative warning messages, but warnings that discourage youth from use may also deter people who smoke from switching. This study tests ten pre-registered hypotheses on effects of warning messages with national samples of youth overall and adults who smoke and/or vape. METHODS: NORC recruited 1639 adults (ages 18+) who smoke, vape, or use both products, from their probability-sampled AmeriSpeak Panel and augmented their AmeriSpeak Teen Panel with Lucid's nonprobability opt-in panel to recruit 1217 youth (ages 14-17) to participate in a web-based survey experiment. We randomly assigned respondents to view one of five warning label conditions and respond to measures of their e-cigarette risk beliefs, willingness to use e-cigarettes, and (among people who smoke or vape) considerations to quit these products. FINDINGS: Relative to the current FDA warning about nicotine, warning messages about the harms of e-cigarette use for youth brain development did not influence risk beliefs or reduce willingness to use these products among youth. Brain development warning messages did increase beliefs about these harms among adults but did not increase quit considerations among people who vape, relative to the FDA warning. Warning messages with information about chemical constituents of vaping products and the harm of these chemicals produced higher e-cigarette quit considerations than did the FDA warning among adults who vape. CONCLUSION: Potential alternative warning label messages were largely ineffective relative to the current FDA warning about nicotine, though limited evidence suggests some potential for chemical + harm messaging to encourage people who use both e-cigarettes and cigarettes to consider quitting both.

Examining Perceptions of Uncertain Language in Potential E-Cigarette Warning Labels: Results from 16 Focus Groups with Adult Tobacco Users and Youth.

E-cigarette use among youth presents a public health risk. Yet, cigarette smokers who substantially reduce their smoking or switch completely from traditional combustible cigarettes could benefit. As science about e-cigarettes is continually emerging, any potential warnings are likely to contain uncertain language. Hedged verbiage may impact decision making. To assess reactions, we conducted 16 online focus groups; 8 with youth (n = 32, grouped by gender and by vaping experience) and 8 with adult tobacco users (n = 37, grouped by smokers, dual users of e-cigarettes and cigarettes, and former smokers who switched to e-cigarettes). Each focus group viewed and discussed 8 potential warnings messages. We conducted an inductive thematic analysis of the reactions to warning messages that contain uncertain language. Respondents' reactions were often negative, but varied based on specific usages of uncertainty, existing beliefs about uncertainty in law and science, and smoking/vaping use patterns that supported the use of uncertainty related to e-cigarettes. Many youth (and some adults) believed that uncertain language enabled audiences to minimize the likelihood of harm or interpreted it as meaning there are both healthy and unhealthy e-cigarettes. This qualitative study provides evidence that the use of types of uncertain language, the frequency of that use, and/or the selection of particular words in warnings, might not achieve the intended public health aims of increasing understanding of risk, deterring youth uptake, and/or facilitating a substantial switch from cigarettes. The use of certain types of uncertain language appears to have significant potential to bring unintended consequences. Suggestions for research and policy are included.

Perceived threat and fear responses to e-cigarette warning label messages: Results from 16 focus groups with U.S. youth and adults.

AIMS: A warning on e-cigarette packaging is one way the U.S. government can inform the public of known harms of e-cigarette use. Currently, the only required warning on these products is: "WARNING: This product contains nicotine. Nicotine is an addictive chemical." This exploratory study aims to inform potential future investigations and FDA decisions regarding alternative warnings that may generate fear in addition to being intentionally informational. METHOD: Data were obtained from responses by 16 online focus groups with adult (N = 47, age range = 18-64) and youth (N = 32, age range 14-16) participants with various smoking and vaping experiences. We showed each focus group a set of hypothetical e-cigarette warning labels to determine how they respond to currently existing public statements that communicate information on the toxicity of ingredients in e-cigarettes, potential health risks, addiction to nicotine, and the uncertainty of the science regarding health effects of using these products. The focus group interviews were audio recorded and transcribed. Transcripts were subjected to a multiphase coding process to identify common response themes. Codes derived from the Extended Parallel Processing Model were then applied to understand impact of potentially fear-inducing language by warning category and age group. RESULTS: For adults, all warnings-except those about addiction-gave rise to spontaneous danger control (intended) responses, such as quit intentions. Warnings highlighting cognitive and uncertain effects may be particularly promising for adult consumers of tobacco products because both gengerated danger control and response efficacy without evidence of fear control. However, responses also suggest that warnings risk discouraging some adults who use combustible cigarettes from transitioning to e-cigarettes for harm reduction. For youth, while evidence of response efficacy and danger control emerged among youth exposed to messages in all warning categories but one-addiction-unproductive reactions indicative of fear control were also prevalent among youth respondent across most warning types. On average, youth were more skeptical than adults about the harms of using e-cigarettes. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Implications of study findings for the development of future effective e-cigarette warning messages are explored.

Challenges in communicating the benefits of switching from cigarettes to e-cigarettes: Responses from eight adult focus groups with varying smoking experience.

This study explored the effectiveness of nuanced messages, described in our study as warnings, that seek to convey the potential benefits of switching from cigarettes to e-cigarettes for adults. The messages were designed to convey the potentially complex idea that e-cigarettes are likely less harmful than combustible cigarettes but that e-cigarettes still present a risk. Eight adult focus groups (N = 37) with varying smoking profiles responded to a set of messages that are used by government agencies and non-government organizations to convey the benefits of switching and ongoing risk associated with e-cigarette use. Results indicate that a suggestion of health benefits from exclusive use of e-cigarettes was met with skepticism from users of e-cigarettes and combustible cigarettes, and generated confusion about what these benefits were. Messages suggesting that individuals who have switched to e-cigarettes should not switch back to combustible cigarettes elicited the strongest statements of doubt and mistrust among focus group participants, regardless of smoking status. Participants representing all smoking profiles agreed with the message suggesting that switching from combustible cigarettes to e-cigarettes still exposes the user to ongoing health risks. Our focus group discussions suggest that adult smokers may not interpret nuanced messages about harm reduction in a way that will encourage switching behavior.

Youth and Young Adult-targeted E-cigarette Warnings and Advertising Messages: An Experiment with Young Adults in the US.

Warnings specifically focused on harm to younger users have been understudied in vaping warning research, even while vaping products may appeal specifically to a younger population through implicit advertising strategies. This study examined how youth and young adult-focused e-cigarette health warning messages and implicit advertising strategies influence affective responses, risk perceptions, cognitive elaboration about e-cigarette harms, and willingness to vape in the future. We recruited young adults (who, at the time, were not smoking combustible cigarettes) aged 18-25 to participate in an online survey experiment with a 3 (warning label type: current FDA/youth and young adult risk-focused/none) × 3 (advertising health message strategy: explicit/implicit/none) + 3 (non-vaping products control) design. The results show a main effect for warning such that both FDA and targeted warnings increased negative affect and decreased positive affect compared to no warning. Moreover, the youth and young adult-focused warning boosted youth-specific harm beliefs and cognitive elaboration relative to control and the FDA warning, which did not differ from one another. Implicit health messages produced greater positive affect relative to explicit messages and no message, but the ad strategy manipulations did not influence other outcomes. While the population studied here with a single exposure reported no effects of either manipulation on willingness to vape, previous research has associated similar emotions and cognitions with lowered intentions to vape. Regulatory bodies should consider further exploration of vaping warnings that emphasize youth and young adult-specific harms to educate young people about relevant risks.

Does industry self-regulation restrict advertising? Evidence from the Children's Food and Beverage Advertising Initiative.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Children's Food and Beverage Advertising Initiative (CFBAI) in reducing children's exposure to ads for candy and sweetened beverages. METHODS: Survey data were used to determine the television programs that children watch and the time slots during which they watch television. Advertisement placement data were used to count the number of candy and sweetened beverage (SB) ads appearing on programs and during those time slots. Advertisement placement data and children's exposure measures were examined for 2003 to 2013. RESULTS: There was a dramatic decline in children's exposure to ads for candy and SBs. The declines occurred before CFBAI implementation and occurred for each demographic group. There was no evidence that advertisers moved ads to programs watched by both children and teens/adults, i.e., programs not likely governed by the CFBAI. CONCLUSION: There was a striking decline in ad placements and children's exposure to ads for candy and SBs, much of which occurred when the CFBAI was being negotiated. Voluntary agreements have the potential to be successful, and some gains may occur even as firms and government negotiate the agreement.

Disparities in exposure to television advertising of sugar-sweetened and non-nutritive sweetened beverages among U.S. adults and teens, 2007-2013.

The objective of this study was to estimate disparities in exposure to television advertising of sugar-sweetened and non-nutritive sweetened beverages among U.S. adults and teens. Data (2007-2013) came from the National Consumer Survey and included 115,510 adult respondents (age 18+) and 8635 teen respondents (age 12-17). The data was originally accessed in 2018 and analyzed in 2019-2020. The main outcomes were individual-level estimated exposure to advertisements for regular soda, diet soda, and energy/sport drinks. The main exposures were by race/ethnicity, household income, and educational attainment. Non-white adults (teens) were exposed to an estimated (per year) 101.5 (190.1) regular soda ads, 49.5 (61.2) diet soda ads, and 157.1 (279.6) energy/sport ads per year while white respondents were exposed to 97.5 (127.7) regular soda ads, 45.8 (44.2) diet soda ads, and 123.9 (192.0) energy/sport ads per year. Adult (teen) respondents who were non-white with low incomes and with low educational attainment were exposed to 4.7% (53.7%) more regular soda ads, 6.6% (43.8%) more diet ads, and 23.2% (56.2%) more energy/sport ads than respondents who were white with high incomes and high educational attainment. Demographic and socio-economic groups with a higher prevalence of obesity were exposed to significantly more advertisements for sugar-sweetened beverages. When evaluating potential policies to regulate marketing of sugar-sweetened and non-nutritive sweetened beverages, policymakers should consider the disparate exposure of at-risk populations to advertising of sugar-sweetened and non-nutritive sweetened beverages.

Should Graphic Warning Labels Proposed for Cigarette Packages Sold in the United States Mention the Food and Drug Administration?

INTRODUCTION: Under the US Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the authority to implement graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packages. Neither the original labels proposed by the FDA nor the revised labels include a source to indicate sponsorship of the warnings. This study tests the potential impact of adding a sponsor to the content of GWLs. METHODS: We recruited adult smokers (N = 245) and middle-school youth (N = 242) from low-income areas in the Northeastern US. We randomly assigned participants to view one of three versions of the original FDA-proposed warning labels in a between-subjects experiment: no sponsor, "US Food and Drug Administration," or "American Cancer Society" sponsor. We tested the effect of varying sponsorship on source attribution and source credibility. RESULTS: Compared to unsponsored labels, FDA sponsorship increased source attributions that the FDA sponsored the labels among both middle-school, largely nonsmoking youth and adult smokers. However, sponsorship had no effect on source credibility among either population. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that adding FDA as the source is likely to boost source credibility judgments, at least in the short term; though doing so would not appear to have adverse effects on credibility judgments. As such, our data are largely consistent with the Tobacco Control Act's provisions that allow, but do not require, FDA sponsorship on the labels. IMPLICATIONS: This study addresses the FDA's regulatory efforts by informing the possible design and content of future cigarette warning labels. Our results do not offer compelling evidence that adding the FDA name on GWLs will directly increase source credibility. Future work may test more explicit FDA source labeling and continue to examine the credibility of tobacco message content among high-priority populations.

Testing the Effects of Certain versus Hypothetical Language in Health Risk Messages.

This paper tests how the certainty or hypotheticality conveyed through language can be harnessed to enhance the effectiveness of targeted messaging about health risks. We conducted two experiments with adult smokers (n = 317) and middle school youth (n = 321) from low-income communities in the context of pictorial cigarette warning labels. We manipulated hypotheticality of risk through verb modality: 1. non-modal (present tense, e.g., smoking causes cancer), and modal/hypothetical (2. may, 3. can, and 4. will). For adult smokers, definitive (present tense) wording led to greater health risk beliefs, compared to hypothetical wording, among adult males but not females. For youth, contrary to what might seem intuitive, the more hypothetical may verb modality was more effective than the present tense language in promoting health risk beliefs. Among youth, greater health risk beliefs were also associated with reduced susceptibility to use cigarettes. No differences in negative affect by hypotheticality of language were found for either population. We discuss these findings in relation to the theoretical implications for the concept of hypotheticality and the application of construal level theory to strategic health communication.

News that Takes Your Breath Away: Risk Perceptions During an Outbreak of Vaping-related Lung Injuries.

We study the impact of new information on people's perceptions of the risks of e-cigarettes. In September 2019 the U.S. experienced an outbreak of e-cigarette, or vaping, associated lung injuries (EVALI). The EVALI outbreak created an information shock, which was followed by additional new information in a later CDC recommendation. We use data on consumer risk perceptions from two sets of surveys conducted before (HINTS survey data) and during the EVALI outbreak (Google Survey data). The empirical model examines changes in risk perceptions during the early crisis period when the CDC was warning consumers that they should avoid all vaping products and during a later period when the message was refined and focused on a narrower set of illegal vaping products that contain THC (the main psychoactive compound in marijuana). Econometric results suggest that the immediate impact of the first information shock was to significantly increase the fraction of respondents who perceived e-cigarettes as more harmful than smoking. As the outbreak subsided and the CDC recommendation changed to emphasize the role of THC e-cigarette products, e-cigarette risk perceptions were only partially revised downwards. Individuals who had higher risk perceptions showed a weaker response to the first information shock but were more likely to later revise their risk perceptions downwards. We conclude the paper by discussing the public policy issues that stem from having risk perceptions of e-cigarette relative to combustible cigarettes remain at these elevated levels where a substantial portion of consumers believe that e-cigarettes are more harmful than cigarettes.

Independent or synergistic? Effects of varying size and using pictorial images in tobacco health warning labels.

INTRODUCTION: Legal challenges have blocked the implementation of large, pictorial health warning labels (HWLs) in the U.S. In light of future legal questions the U.S. Food and Drug Administration may face in proposing alternative HWLs, we examined whether less restrictive HWL versions on the front of packs-smaller HWLs and/or text-only HWLs that do not include pictorial imagery-may be sufficient to promote cognitive and affective outcomes associated with smoking cessation. METHODS: We recruited low-income smokers in two separate experiments through field-based recruitment methods (Study 1, N = 497) or Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) (Study 2, N = 495). In both studies, we randomly assigned participants to a no-HWL control condition or one of four HWL conditions in a 2 (pictorial vs. text-only) × 2 (50% vs. 30% size) between-subjects design. RESULTS: Relative to text-only HWLs, pictorial HWLs increased negative affect but not risk belief acceptance, cognitive elaboration about smoking harms, or quit intentions. The 50% HWLs increased quit intentions relative to the control condition in both studies. The 50% HWLs also outperformed the 30% HWLs in promoting quit intentions in Study 2. Subsequent analyses revealed that this effect in Study 2 may have been driven by the 50% HWLs strengthening the relationship between risk-related thoughts and intentions, although there was no evidence for this pattern in Study 1. We found no evidence for interaction effects between the pictorial and size manipulations. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that 50% HWLs, whether pictorial or text-only, can encourage low-income smokers to consider quitting under some conditions.

Effects of Varying Color, Imagery, and Text of Cigarette Package Warning Labels among Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Middle School Youth and Adult Smokers.

The U.S. Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act (Tobacco Control Act) of 2009 paved the way for the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to propose nine different graphic warning labels (GWLs) intended for prominent placement on the front and back of cigarette packs and on cigarette advertisements. Those GWLs were adjudicated as unconstitutional on the ground that they unnecessarily infringed tobacco companies' free speech without sufficiently advancing the government's public health interests. This study examines whether less extensive alternatives to the original full-color GWLs, including black-and-white GWLs and text-only options, have similar or divergent effects on visual attention, negative affect, and health risk beliefs. We used a mobile media research lab to conduct a randomized experiment with two populations residing in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities: biochemically confirmed adult smokers (N = 313) and middle school youth (N = 340). Results indicate that full-color GWLs capture attention for longer than black-and-white GWLs among both youth and adult smokers. Among adults, packages with GWLs (in either color or black-and-white) engendered more negative affect than those with text-only labels, while text-only produced greater negative affect than the packages with brand imagery only. Among youth, GWLs and text-only labels produced comparable levels of negative affect, albeit more so than brand imagery. We thus offer mixed findings related to the claim that a less extensive alternative could satisfy the government's compelling public health interest to reduce cigarette smoking rates.

Testing competing explanations for graphic warning label effects among adult smokers and non-smoking youth.

RATIONALE: The United States courts have blocked the implementation of graphic warning labels on cigarette packages (GWLs). This decision was based, in part, on the premise that GWLs are unnecessarily emotional and are meant to scare rather than inform consumers about smoking's health effects. However, research in judgment and decision-making suggests these relationships are more complex. OBJECTIVE: In this article, we draw on several theoretical frameworks that lead to competing hypotheses about the relationships between negative affect, health risk beliefs, and quit intentions (among adult smokers) or susceptibility to start smoking (among non-smoking youth). METHOD: We tested these competing mediation models using data from two experiments with two populations each-adult smokers (Ns = 313 and 238) and primarily non-smoking middle-school youth (Ns = 340 and 237). Using mobile recruitment methods, we focused specifically on individuals from socioeconomically disadvantaged communities in rural and urban areas of the Northeastern United States. RESULTS: The best fitting model across all four datasets was one in which label-induced negative affect (a) directly predicted intentions/susceptibility but also (b) indirectly predicted intentions/susceptibility via risk beliefs. Although mediation analyses did not demonstrate significant serial mediation effects of label exposure on intentions/susceptibility through negative affect then risk beliefs, there was some evidence that label exposure indirectly promoted adults' quit intentions through negative affect. Additionally, negative affect consistently mediated the indirect effect of label exposure on strengthened risk beliefs among adults and youth. CONCLUSIONS: These results speak to the importance of negative affect in directly motivating adult smokers' quit intentions but also serving an informational function, directing adult smokers and non-smoking youth to accept the health risks of smoking.

Effects of 30% and 50% Cigarette Pack Graphic Warning Labels on Visual Attention, Negative Affect, Quit Intentions, and Smoking Susceptibility among Disadvantaged Populations in the United States.

Introduction: Though the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control (FCTC) calls for the implementation of large graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette boxes, the courts have blocked the implementation of 50% labels in the United States. We conducted an experiment to explore whether changing the size of GWLs is associated with changes in visual attention, negative affect, risk beliefs, and behavioral intentions. Method: We recruited adult smokers (N = 238) and middle-school youth (N = 237) throughout the state of New York in May 2016. We randomly assigned participants to one of three between-subject conditions (no GWL [control], 30% GWL, 50% GWL). Results: Adult and youth participants looked at the GWLs longer when the GWL covered 50% versus 30% of the pack's front. Increasing GWL size from 30% to 50% did not influence negative affect or risk beliefs, though both GWL sizes increased negative affect relative to the no-GWL control group. Exposure to 50% GWLs increased adult smokers' intentions to quit compared to no-GWL, but smokers exposed to 30% GWLs did not differ from control. There were no differences between 50% GWLs, 30% GWLs, and control on youth smoking susceptibility. Conclusions: Findings provide some evidence of the benefits of a 50% versus 30% GWL covering the front of the pack for adult smokers and at-risk youth from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds-though not on all outcomes. Implications: This research shows that 30% GWLs on cigarette packages increase negative affect relative to packages without front-of-package GWLs. Larger GWLs on cigarette packages (50% vs. 30%) increase visual attention to the warning and its pictorial content among low-SES smokers and at-risk youth but do not further increase negative affect. A 50% GWL increased adults' quit intention compared to no GWL at all, but we were underpowered to detect modest differences in quit intentions between a 50% and 30% GWL. Future work should thus continue to explore the boundary conditions under which relatively larger GWLs influence cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes.

Mixed Messages, Mixed Outcomes: Exposure to Direct-to-Consumer Advertising for Statin Drugs is Associated with More Frequent Visits to Fast Food Restaurants and Exercise.

This study examines whether exposure to direct-to-consumer advertising (DTCAs) for statin drugs is associated with non-pharmaceutical behaviors to prevent cardiovascular disease. We focus on the relationship between statin drug DTCA exposure and the frequency of (a) visits to fast-food restaurants and (b) exercise. We combine data on the televised broadcast availability of statin drug DTCAs in large media markets in the United States with 18 waves of the Simmons National Consumer Survey (NCS; n = 120, 229) from 2001 to 2009. We find that statin drug DTCA exposure is associated, in a dose-response pattern, with modest increases in the frequency of exercise and large increases in the frequency of fast-food-restaurant visits. The relationship between statin DTCA exposure and fast-food-restaurant visits were largely consistent in direction but differed in magnitude between those without a previous diagnosis of high cholesterol and those treating high cholesterol with a statin. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these results for future research on pharmaceutical DTCA and population health.

Do the ends justify the means? A test of alternatives to the FDA proposed cigarette warning labels.

Three studies provide empirical, social scientific tests of alternatives to the originally proposed U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) cigarette package warning labels on health risk beliefs, perceived fear, and effectiveness. Our research addresses questions at the root of the legal disputes surrounding FDA regulation of cigarette package warning labels. Specifically, we describe results from three studies that investigate the mediating role of health beliefs and perceived fear in shaping message effectiveness and intentions to quit. The first study featured nonsmoking young adults, while the second and third studies sampled adult daily smokers. Each study was a randomized experiment with five warning-label image conditions: full-color graphic warning labels, black-and-white graphic warning labels, warning text (no graphic image), Surgeon General's warning labels, and no warning. Results consistently indicate that graphic warning labels (in both color and black-and-white) promote increased perceptions of fear, which in turn are associated with greater (perceived and actual) effectiveness. We conclude with a discussion of the results, highlighting implications, public policy considerations, and suggestions for future research.

The unintended consequences of disclosure: effect of manipulating sponsor identification on the perceived credibility and effectiveness of smoking cessation advertisements.

One reason that tobacco-sponsored smoking cessation ads are less effective than those sponsored by public health agencies may be that the persuasive arguments in tobacco-sponsored ads are inherently weaker than arguments made in public health ads. An alternate explanation is that sponsorship disclosure on the face of the ad activates resistance, partly because of credibility judgments directed toward tobacco companies. The authors test hypotheses in a 3 (sponsor identification) × 2 (ad content) randomized factorial experiment (N = 270). Results indicate that judgments of sponsor credibility play a mediating role in perceptions of ad effectiveness, with identification of a tobacco company as the sponsor of cessation ads undermining perceived credibility compared with the same ads without the tobacco company identified. However, the reduction in credibility resulting from tobacco sponsorship can be partially overcome when the sponsor is placed on more direct ad content (public health ads). The effects of credibility on perceived effectiveness were stronger for more ambiguous ad content and driven by participants with lower levels of involvement (nonsmokers). Credibility judgments are not as important when the ad content is more direct about the health consequences of smoking. Implications of study results for theory and public policy are explored.

Cigarette taxes and the transition from youth to adult smoking: smoking initiation, cessation, and participation.

Many policy makers continue to advocate and adopt cigarette taxes as a public health measure. Most previous individual-level empirical studies of cigarette demand are essentially static analyses of the relationship between the level of taxes and smoking behavior at a point in time. In this study, we use longitudinal data to examine the dynamics of young adults' decisions about smoking initiation and cessation. We develop a simple model to highlight the distinctions between smoking initiation, cessation, and participation. We show that because smoking participation reflects past decisions regarding initiation and cessation, the price elasticity of smoking participation is a weighted average of corresponding initiation and cessation elasticities, a finding that applies more broadly to other addictive substances as well. The paper's remaining contributions are empirical. We use data from the 1992 wave of the National Education Longitudinal Study, when most of the cohort were high school seniors, and data from the 2000 wave, when they were about 26 years old. The results show that the distinction between initiation and cessation is empirically useful. We also contribute new estimates on the tax-responsiveness of young adult smoking, paying careful attention to the possibility of bias if hard-to-observe differences in anti-smoking sentiment are correlated with state cigarette taxes. We find no evidence that higher taxes prevent smoking initiation, but some evidence that higher taxes are associated with increased cessation.

Youth smoking, cigarette prices, and anti-smoking sentiment.

In this paper, we develop a new direct measure of state anti-smoking sentiment and merge it with micro-data on youth smoking in 1992 and 2000. The empirical results from the cross-sectional models show two consistent patterns: after controlling for differences in state anti-smoking sentiment, the price of cigarettes has a weak and statistically, insignificant influence on smoking participation, and state anti-smoking sentiment appears to have a potentially important influence on youth smoking participation. The cross-sectional results are corroborated by results from the discrete time hazard models of smoking initiation that include state-fixed effects. However, there is evidence of price-responsiveness in the conditional cigarette demand by youth and young adult smokers.